The carnage is almost unbelievable. Opening at one minute past midnight in some places, the day after Thanksgiving -- known as “Black Friday” -- is a retailers dream and nightmare combined.
It is a dream because shoppers show up in droves with wallets open and eager to spend. It is a nightmare because shoppers show up in droves with wallets closed and willing to only open them for the most extreme of discounts.
Those two extremes in Christmas shoppers make Black Friday both a blessing and a curse.
“We opened at 12:01am on the day after Thanksgiving and had produced more than $35,000 in sales by 6:00 a.m.,” reveal Jennifer Howland, an assistant sales manager for a Victoria Secret’s outlet in Las Vegas. “To my knowledge that set a company record for sales in such a short period of time. But my store was totally ripped. We had items on the floor all over and we’re sure we lost a lot of product to theft. The fire marshal imposed a limit of how many people we could have in the store at a time. We had to line up people outside the store and when one person left we could let another person inside. It was like that for hours.”
For shoppers, the enticement is too much to resist. The promise of a $400 laptop made mile-long lines in the dark of a very cold night outside most Best Buy locations nationwide. Local news coverage of the invasion of shoppers at WalMart, Target and JCPenney has become a staple of Thanksgiving weekend television.
“It makes me so angry,” noted Alma Fossan of Blackfoot, Idaho who waited outside a local WalMart for a chance at a low-priced flat screen television. “They have a big ad but little inventory. By the time I got to the televisions what I wanted was gone. It’s not fair.”
But for 23-year old Brad Fox of Fort Collins, Colorado Black Friday is Christmas morning. “I love it,” he said. “I got my laptop. I got my iPod. And I got my movies all for under $600 and I’m done. Merry freakin’ Christmas.”
These are the games and the realities of Black Friday.
Is it worth it? And with a completely different kind of economy for Christmas 2008 will Black Friday be different? Here some trends we’re noticing in the market place:
- Soft line retailers like JCPenney and Sears will have aggressive deals on clothes and shoes. Summer and Fall seasons have been a disaster for them.
- Televisions are an item to really watch. With the February 2009 switch-over to an all-digital broadcast standard folks have to either get a box to make their old TV work or buy a new one. Lots more retailers will have televisions this year and the bargains will be plenty.
- Traditional discounters like WalMart and Target are doing well in this economy and have a lot of power with vendors. Expect early discounting and better deals AFTER Black Friday.
- Desktop and laptop computers now start at $400 or so everyday. Look for $250 to $300 dollar price points this year on Black Friday.
- Flat screen television prices are plummeting. Look for 32 inch LCDs around $350. The larger 50-inch plus 1080p televisions could be around $1100 this year.
- Blu-Ray players could hit $150 for Black Friday. Blu-Ray movies will be had for $10.
- 7 and 9 inch digital picture frames will come in under $50
- You won’t find Nintendo Wii’s or Apple iPhone 3G in stock, much less on sale. Buy as soon as you can if you got to have it.
- Layaway is making a comeback -- two years after WalMart made headlines by getting rid of it. Kmart is the most major retailer offering it. (The trick there is knowing whether or not your layaway investments will survive Kmart bankruptcy fears). Marshalls, KB Toys, TJ Maxx and Burlington Coat Factory all offer layaway programs. Of course, there’s always elayaway.com.
- Some retailers are not going to survive the downturn in the economy. Where there is smoke rising from their red ink there is fire in their potential discounts. Here is a brief list of who is on the ropes: Mervyns, Linens 'n Things, Borders, Circuit City, Steve & Barry's, Ann Taylor, Boscov's, Sears, and Kmart. Expect some surprises apart from this list as most retailers are in far worse shape than they are reporting.
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